A new report from Scandinavian Airlines (SAS) has warned that Europe risks future fuel shock without a significant drive to produce vast amounts of sustainable fuel.
Published on April 30, 2026, SAS’s report states that Europe is heading toward a structural shortage of e-SAF (electro-sustainable aviation fuel) just as the EU’s ReFuelEU Aviation regulation comes into force.
The European Union’s ReFuelEU places legal obligations on fuel suppliers, airports and operators to adopt sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) in order to reduce emissions
The airline suggests that a “rapid build-out” of sustainable fuel production is required, or else the shortfall “could push up fares, force route cuts and deepen Europe’s energy vulnerability at a moment when global fuel markets are already under pressure”.
SAS predicts that demand for e-SAF will rise sharply from 2030, but so far no European production facility has yet reached Final Investment Decision (FID).
Mads Brandstrup Nielsen, Senior Vice President Communication, Public Affairs and Sustainability at SAS, said: “What we are seeing now is a reminder of how exposed Europe remains to global fuel shocks. If we fail to build domestic e‑SAF production, we risk creating a second vulnerability, this time inside a regulated system where demand is mandated but supply is not. This is a structural issue that will affect ticket prices, route networks and Europe’s competitiveness unless we act now.”
According to the report, Scandinavian aviation alone will require 36.000 tons of e‑SAF in 2030, rising to more than 160.000 tons by 2035 and 330.000 tons by 2040.
This corresponds to the output of one dedicated production plant by 2032, increasing to two to three plants by 2035 and around five plants by 2040.
The report argues that Europe must either scale back its ambition under RefuelEU, delaying aviation’s net‑zero transition, or else accelerate production through targeted policy support, investment incentives and infrastructure development.
“Europe now has a very short window to decide whether it wants to lead or follow in the next phase of clean aviation,” Brandstrup added. “Building e‑SAF production is not only about meeting a mandate, it is about securing long‑term energy stability, protecting connectivity and keeping European industry competitive in a world that is moving fast. Without accelerated investment, we risk higher costs for passengers, weaker networks for businesses and a new strategic dependency that will be far harder to unwind later.”
You can view the full report on the SAS website.
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