Russia has adapted its Iskander-M and Kinzhal ballistic missiles to evade Ukraine’s air defenses, Ukrainian and Western officials told the Financial Times in October 2025. Software changes appear to let the missiles follow a normal trajectory before suddenly diving steeply or veering in the terminal phase, moves designed to confuse interceptors.
The effect has been visible. According to FT, Ukraine’s ballistic missile interception rate climbed to 37% in August 2025 but then plummeted to just 6% in September 2025, despite fewer launches. Over the summer, Russian strikes badly damaged at least four drone-making sites in and around Kyiv, including one on August 28, 2025, that also hit the nearby offices of the EU Delegation and British Council.
Unlike experimental hypersonic weapons such as boost-glide vehicles or scramjet-powered cruise missiles, Russia’s ground-launched Iskander-M and its aeroballistic version, the Kh-47M2 Kinzhal, do not demonstrate the sustained atmospheric maneuvering of newer glide vehicles.
Instead, they follow a modified ballistic arc, during which they reach a speed of Mach 10 to 12, with some ability to adjust their course in the terminal phase. It is these late-stage adjustments, more limited than those seen in more recent hypersonic systems, but still disruptive, that have begun to undermine Ukraine’s interception efforts.
The US Department of Defense’s inspector general reported in mid-2025 that Ukraine has “struggled to consistently use Patriot” systems against these evolving threats, which include sharp trajectory shifts and sudden dives.
Patriots remain the backbone of Ukraine’s ballistic missile defense
Patriot systems remain Ukraine’s primary line of defense against ballistic missiles, and most successful intercepts have been credited to them. France and Italy delivered one SAMP/T MAMBA battery in 2023, which Ukraine confirmed successfully intercepted a Russian Kinzhal missile in May 2023. However, its overall impact remains limited by small numbers and shortages of Aster-30 interceptor missiles.
Western partners are trying to close the gap. In 2024 and 2025, the US approved over $1 billion in new support that included Patriot sustainment, while Germany and Norway have delivered additional components. Ukraine is also working to upgrade older Soviet-era systems.
With winter 2025 approaching, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has repeatedly warned that Russia will again try to cripple Ukraine’s power grid.
“Unfortunately, this has already become a traditional Russian tactic,” Zelenskyy said on September 28, 2025. “Russia is once again trying to hit Ukraine with a blackout this year.”
At the same time, Zelenskyy has cautioned that if Moscow threatens a blackout in Kyiv, Ukraine could respond in kind against Russia’s own capital, a position he said he has discussed directly with US President Donald Trump.
