Canadian officials are weighing a mixed fighter fleet that could see Sweden’s Saab account for roughly half of the eventual replacement program by value, according to a National Post column by John Ivison published on January 28, 2026, citing unnamed sources.
The column argues that Ottawa is unlikely to follow through on the full 88-jet F-35 plan announced in 2022 and instead could buy fewer F-35As while adding the Gripen E as a second type. Canadian Defense Minister David McGuinty told the outlet that no final decision has been made.
Ivison links the procurement debate to Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s recent Davos remarks on strategic autonomy and diversification. In his World Economic Forum address on January 20, 2026, Carney argued that allies will “diversify to hedge against uncertainty,” framing the shift as a form of risk management in a less rules-bound world.
US envoy warns NORAD would be “altered” if Canada pulls back
The mixed-fleet debate has been amplified by direct public messaging from US Ambassador to Canada Pete Hoekstra, who has warned that a Canadian pullback from the planned F-35 fleet would force changes to continental air defense arrangements.
In comments reported by CBC News, Hoekstra said NORAD “would have to be altered” if Canada does not proceed with 88 F-35s, suggesting the United States would compensate by flying more of its own fighters in Canadian airspace.
Hoekstra has made similar arguments before. In May 2025, he warned that moving away from the F-35 could jeopardize NORAD’s “interchangeability” logic, which assumes both air forces operate the same fighter type to integrate seamlessly into shared procedures, data links, and operational planning.
Saab’s counterweight is industrial, and jobs
Saab’s pitch to Ottawa has increasingly centered on industrial return and domestic capacity, not just aircraft performance.
Saab said in December 2025 that localizing production of both the Gripen fighter and the GlobalEye airborne surveillance aircraft in Canada could support up to 12,600 jobs, with Bombardier positioned as a key partner through the existing GlobalEye relationship.
The offer is designed to appeal to Ottawa’s industrial priorities as it reviews the fighter program and to reframe the debate from selecting the “best aircraft” to choosing the “best overall package,” once long-term support, sovereignty, and domestic workshare are factored in.
Canada’s F-35 commitment is under review
The Liberal government first announced in March 2025 that it would review the purchase, citing heightened trade and diplomatic tensions with the United States, as Canada entered an election campaign.
Following his re-election, Carney has advocated for greater diversification in Ottawa’s defense and industrial partnerships. That stance was underscored by a new defense and trade cooperation framework signed with the European Union in June 2025. A final decision was initially expected by the end of summer 2025, but Carney’s office has not announced any outcome.
While the Royal Canadian Air Force remains openly in favor of the F-35, key cabinet figures, including Industry Minister Mélanie Joly, have raised concerns about the contract’s economic balance and the scale of industrial return.
A long and contentious procurement history
The current debate is the latest twist in Canada’s long-running fighter replacement saga. It began in 2010, when Stephen Harper’s government moved to buy 65 F-35As for about $6.7 billion, a plan Justin Trudeau pledged to cancel during the 2015 election as an overly expensive sole-source deal.
Ottawa then launched the Future Fighter Capability Project in 2017 as an open competition, but Dassault withdrew in 2018 over Five Eyes-related constraints. Airbus exited in 2019 arguing the terms favored Lockheed Martin, and Boeing’s Super Hornet was disqualified in 2021, leaving the F-35 and Saab’s Gripen as finalists.
Canada ultimately selected the F-35 again in 2022, citing NORAD interoperability, NATO commitments, and Arctic defense requirements, and announced a plan to acquire 88 aircraft valued at roughly $14 billion.
