In light of recent developments, I’ve seen many people theorize that American Airlines may launch flights to Manila, Philippines (MNL). Let’s talk about the reason the rumor exists, and analyze it a bit.
The case for American launching flights to Manila
We just learned that Philippine Airlines will be joining the oneworld alliance in 2027. While there had been no credible rumors of this being in the works, it sort of makes sense. We’ve increasingly seen Philippine Airlines partner with oneworld carriers, ranging from Alaska, to American, to Qatar Airways, and beyond.
We’ve also just seen American reveal it would cancel its Doha (DOH) flights, and instead, launch service to a new destination.
So the logical question that many people are asking is if this could now lead to American flying to Manila, given that this is essentially a partner hub? The arguments in favor of this are obvious:
- American would have connectivity in Manila, so it would open up some new one-stop service for American in the region, with American as the long haul carrier; that being said, keep in mind American is part of a transpacific joint venture with Japan Airlines, so it ideally wants to route traffic through Tokyo (admittedly that’s not always so valuable for service to secondary Southeast Asia destinations)
- Competitively, in late 2023 we saw United add service to Manila (and seemingly have success, as the airline has added more service since launch), and Delta also plans to fly to Manila as of 2027
Why I’m skeptical of American flying to the Philippines
Personally, I don’t see much merit to American flying to Manila, at least in the context of its current strategy. Let me emphasize that American doesn’t always act rationally, which is how it has gotten to the point where it’s barely profitable. So whether there’s merit to something or whether it actually happens are two completely different topics. 😉
As I see it, there are several major challenges. First of all, out of which hub will American serve Manila? The carrier’s only West Coast hub is Los Angeles (LAX). We’ve seen American try to build up its transpacific gateway out of there, only to ultimately retreat. We now know Delta plans to grow there, so I can’t imagine American trying to match that growth is a smart strategy.
I don’t see merit to American launching Los Angeles to Manila flights, where it would go head-to-head against Delta, as well as multiple daily Philippine Airlines flights. For that matter, American has a massive cost disadvantage compared to Philippine Airlines, so it’s hard to make sense of how the economics would work.
American wouldn’t be able to get a revenue premium to support that service, especially with Delta also operating in the market.
Okay, American could operate the route out of its Dallas (DFW) mega hub, I suppose, but at this point we’re talking about an 8,320-mile flight, which would be American’s longest flight. When you consider the cost of operating such a flight, it’s just hard to imagine the airline would be able to achieve revenue performance that justifies that.
I mean, keep in mind American no longer flies to Hong Kong (HKG), despite partnering with Cathay Pacific, and that route even being a bit shorter. So I have a hard time imagining American can make Manila work, if it can’t make Hong Kong work.
Anyway, we’ll see how everything plays out. If American actually wanted to become a global player, sure, I could see Manila making sense in the context of the overall route portfolio. But as a one-off strategy, I just don’t see how this could make sense.
Bottom line
G
