The Boeing 777X has been delayed several years, but the aviation industry is already starting to answer what will follow it from Boeing. The answer seems to be the New Midsize Airplane (NMA), which is often referred to as the Boeing 797. Most of what we know so far is speculation, but it won’t be designed to replace a particular jet.
Rather, it will sit somewhere between the Boeing 757 and 767 in terms of size, placing it right in the middle of the jetliner market. This article introduces everything we know about the 797, along with why it has not progressed beyond the drawing board. It also asks what Airbus jets it might compete with, and how it might fit into the growing Asian and Middle Eastern markets.
What Is Known About Boeing NMA?
While nothing has been firmly confirmed about what the characteristics of the 797 might be, Boeing has not been shy about fueling speculation. As a result, we have some idea of what the NMA will look like. Current speculation from leading analysts in the aviation sector is that two variants will be available. The high-range, low-capacity variant will be used for longer routes with modest capacity, while the opposite is the case for the larger and shorter-range variant.
Even the low-capacity variant is predicted to have around 220 seats, 20% more than the Boeing 757. It has also been suggested that the 797 will offer 40% lower operating costs than older aircraft. The table below breaks down what we think the 797 could look like based on comments by Boeing’s Vice President for Product Development, Mike Sinnett, in conversation with Bloomberg.
|
Metric |
Potential Boeing 797 Specifications |
|---|---|
|
Range |
4,500–5,000 nautical miles |
|
Capacity |
220-270 passengers |
|
Engine |
2 x Pratt & Whitney or CFM International, producing 50,000 lbf |
|
Replacing |
Boeing 757 and 767 |
|
Development cost |
$15-25 billion |
|
Market size |
4,000 aircraft over two decades |
The 797 seems like it will be designed based on a philosophy of extrapolating technologies developed for the Boeing 777Xand 787 Dreamliner onto a new aircraft size, rather than developing new technologies in its own right. The aircraft will likely use extensive composite materials and leverage aerodynamic lessons from the 777X and 787’s development. The main new technology will be its engines, 50,000 lbf powerplants produced by CFM International and/or Pratt & Whitney.
The 797 Has Already Fallen Victim To Boeing’s Delays
Major discussions about the 797 began in 2017, when then-CEO Dennis Muilenburg told the industry that Boeing would decide whether to offer the NMA by the end of that year. Should that have happened, it would have been formally launched in 2020, but a litany of setbacks, including the 737 MAX crisis, put Boeing into crisis management mode rather than offering new and exciting jets to the industry. The 797 was pushed back as a result, while the Airbus A321XLR has had a successful launch.
The 797 came back onto the agenda in January 2020, when new CEO David Calhoun announced his intentions to have the company restart NMA evaluation, although it would have a completely new design. He told the industry that because the industry has changed since the NMA came into the public eye in 2017, the manufacturer would need to “start with a clean sheet of paper again.” Since then, however, it seems that the 797 has been on hold.
After akll, with 777X delays ongoing, Boeing has bigger fish to fry. The only significant news to report has been a 2024 commitment from Boeing to build its next aircraft in Washington State. The manufacturer stated that “as part of the contract, our team in the Puget Sound region will build Boeing’s next new airplane. This would go along with our other flagship models, meaning job security for generations to come. It’s a big commitment to you and to our community.”
What Might The 797 Compete With?
With the 797 already delayed and 777X and 737 MAX issues causing airlines to lose confidence in the manufacturer, airlines are looking into alternative options when overhauling their midsize fleets. The Airbus A321XLR currently has the lead in this sector. Airbus launched this jet in 2019 with an impressive range of 4,700 nautical miles, and such characteristics offer the ability to fly long routes with all the flexibility that a narrowbody jet offers.
The fact that the A321XLR has already achieved notable market successes shows that it is a compelling option for many carriers. Ch-aviation data shows that Airbus has 483 units on order, including 50 for United Airlines and 24 for Qantas. Many airlines have already begun successfully operating this jet, including Iberia (four jets), Air Lingus (three jets), and Wizz Air UK (two jets).
Some airlines are integrating the Airbus A321XLRinto a broader overhaul of their narrowbody fleets centered around Airbus’ products. For example, United’s order for 50 XLRs sits alongside a narrowbody renewal program that includes 130 A321neos.
Airbus Is Taking A Different Approach
Boeing’s NMA is all about taking what has worked well for its new widebody aircraft and applying it to a midsize aircraft. Meanwhile, speculation surrounding Airbus is focused on the Airbus A390. This would be a new widebody superjumbo intended as the successor to the discontinued Airbus A380. Even less is known about what this could look like, and even if Airbus is interested in such an endeavor, than for the 797.
That is because Airbus hasn’t confirmed that an A390 development program exists, and there has been an absence of prototype development, public statements, or regulatory filings. Perhaps the A390 is just wishful thinking from fans of the world’s most striking widebody. The development of a modern jetliner costs tens of billions of dollars, which would need to be recouped by sales, but the market for superjumbos is shrinking, as evidenced by the collapse of the A380 program.
Modern airlines want to use advanced and smaller twinjets to operate a point-to-point business model, rather than the hub-and-spoke model that characterized the superjumbo’s golden age. The focus for Airbus moving forward could be more in line with Boeing due to its focus on developing smaller jets from existing product lines, like the Airbus A320neoand A350 families. There is also the ZEROe initiative, which aims to bring about the world’s first commercial aircraft with zero emissions by 2035.
Growing Markets Could Make Boeing Reconsider Targeting The Mid-Size Sector
Boeing’s decision to focus on the midsize market results from a US and European tendency towards smaller aircraft that allow for point-to-point flying, but the Asian and Middle Eastern markets are set to grow significantly over the next couple of decades. For instance, Airbus has estimated that commercial aviation in the Asia Pacific will grow to $129 billion by 2043 with an annual growth rate of 4.81%, with Cristinal Aguilar Grieder, its Senior Vice President of Customer Services, saying:
“The Asia-Pacific region will see the largest volume of growth and activity in terms of aftermarket services, with many opportunities for additional efficiency, simplification, and responsible operations.”
19,500 new jets will be needed to feed this growth, and Boeing will need to consider how the types of aircraft the region’s market demands may be different to Europe and the US. Notably, Emirates has countered the dominance of twinjets by maintaining a huge A380 fleet. These have proven ideal for airlines operating from central locations that can run high-capacity routes to hubs around the world. Such carriers have also been substantial customers for widebodies like the Boeing 787, 777X, and A350.
The growth of the Asian and Middle Eastern markets might lead Boeing to consider a re-entry into the superjumbo market, as Airbus may do with the A390. However, that is not to say it will eliminate the need for narrowbody jets and mid-sized airplanes. As the Asian and Middle Eastern international market grows, we can expect the domestic market will grow alongside it, and the 797 could prove ideal for domestic aviation in nations like China.
What Might Follow In The Generation After the 797?
The Boeing 797 is ultimately likely to be more or less part of the same generation of aircraft as the 787, 777X, and 737 MAX. However, with the environmental impact of aviation being a growing concern, manufacturers are having to rethink everything about how aircraft operate. One way that Boeing is looking into the future is with its blended-wing X-48B, a prototype of which was tested at NASA’s Langley Research Center. However, there has been little progress towards making this jet a reality.
The coming revolution in the aviation industry, and the necessary move towards net-zero emissions, may end up coming from elsewhere. Indeed, JetZero’s Demonstrator, enabled by NASAand the USAF, has scheduled its maiden flight for 2027.
This groundbreaking new aircraft is currently under construction in collaboration with Northrop Grumman via its subsidiary Scaled Composites. It remains to be seen how legacy manufacturers like Boeing and Airbus will compete with such next-generation aircraft when they enter the market.
- Stock Code
-
BA
- Date Founded
-
July 15, 1916
- CEO
-
Kelly Ortberg
- Headquarters Location
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Chicago, USA
