While the authenticity of the footage remains unconfirmed, the video appears to show the engagement at close range during the Mar. 2 incident. We break down how such a blue-on-blue could occur.
As already reported, according to unofficial reports, a Kuwait Air Force F/A-18 Hornet was responsible for the downing of three U.S. Air Force F-15E Strike Eagle in a pretty unusual friendly fire incident on Mar. 2, 2026.
Whether the Kuwaiti pilot deliberately engaged the U.S. aircraft or the incident was the result of a series of contributing factors/mistake remains unclear. However a footage circulating online seems to suggest the Hornet pilot engaged at least one F-15E WVR (Within Visual Range).
The authenticity of the footage has not yet been confirmed but, if genuine, it would appear to paint a different scenario, in which the Hornet pilot deliberately shot down aircraft that, given the very short distances involved, could likely have been visually identified.
Kuwaiti F-18 🇰🇼 Engaged USAF F-15 🇺🇸 with in the visual range and shot it down.
The lack of integration could have been the reason but shooting down a friendly with in visual range is just absurd.
What was the pilot thinking? 🤯 pic.twitter.com/kLDM44J9kj
— Black__Bird (@Blaxk__Bird) March 6, 2026
Anyway, while we wait for an official investigation to determine the root cause of the incident, the emergence of the video provides an opportunity for further commentary on the friendly fire event.
First of all, whatever the explanation, we cannot help but say it is a strange event. When operations like this are conducted, there are control procedures in place, known as airspace control measures, including an Airspace Control Plan, which defines how aircraft enter and exit the “battlespace.”
It’s unusual also because allied aircraft have been flying over Kuwait for decades. It’s not clear whether the aircraft involved were integrated into the Link 16 network (which seems unlikely), which IFF modes were being used, or whether the CAOC had full awareness of the assets airborne at that time in terms. There should be an ATO (Air Tasking Order) indicating who is flying and doing what.
It is also unclear what level of integration exists between the coalition and the air defense forces of the countries involved, including Kuwait.
In simple terms, there are many variables at play in trying to understand what may have caused this blue-on-blue incident. That being said, in a particularly stressful situation, with many kamikaze drones and missile to intercept, there is always the risk that the Kuwaiti Air Force Hornet pilot may have misidentified the aircraft, believing them to be hostile.
We should not forget that two Iranian Su-24s were reportedly shot down by a Qatari Emiri Air Force F-15QA, meaning there’s some residual IRIAF (Islamic Republic of Iran Air Force) aircraft still flying and potentially threatening Gulf states.
The American pilots were most likely in a relatively relaxed posture, returning to base after a mission and recovering from the stress of the sortie. As a result, they were probably less focused on detecting possible threats in the sky, especially since they were already operating within what they believed to be friendly airspace.
From the interceptor standpoint, there are established criteria for identification and engagement. Once a contact is identified, the Rules of Engagement determine whether it can be engaged.
Needless to say, before engaging a target, it must first be properly identified. For this reason, the possibility remains that the Kuwaiti pilot may have committed an identification error, a significant one, even a remarkable one, especially considering the distance at which the engagement appears to have occurred, at least based on the video that surfaced on social media today.
During the first days of a conflict, the level of coordination is always lower. Coalitions are not really that coordinate with all parties operating more or less autonomously (this is something we observed during the Libya Air War in 2011, for instance). The issue likely lies somewhere in the information-sharing criteria, the detection-identification-engagement chain, or the RoE themselves. The error must have occurred somewhere along that chain.
However, in light of the video, whether it is authentic or not, we cannot even completely rule out the possibility of a deliberate act by a rogue pilot or a distracted one. The investigation will eventually find out.
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