May 6, 2026, (c) Leeham News: The following reports from Boeing, CAE, Oliver Wyman, Deloitte, PwC, and McKinsey provide much of the detail in our two-part series on the Aerospace and Defense Workforce. In addition, these reports may be summarized as follows:
Boeing: 43,000 aircraft will be delivered between now and 2044. BUT: 56% of companies are struggling to hire skilled manufacturing workers, according to a study by AIA. “Both Boeing and Airbus have reported difficulties maintaining production schedules owing to a shortage of skilled workers, including machinists, welders, and chip engineers.” Boeing incurred an estimated $5bn in losses due to halted production and delays in plane deliveries. That begs the question of what the losses are across the industry, despite Boeing’s unique headwinds.
ARSA: The 2026 Global Fleet and MRO Market Report cited the industry’s top concerns were continuing threats posed by workforce shortages and the “juniority effect” despite the fact the MRO industry was reaching new heights.”
There’s the cost to safety.
“More than 5,000 companies employ nearly 430,000 people, each representing an average of $325,663 in revenue for the overall market,” said the ARSA/Oliver Wyman Vector report. “By 2027 — projected to be the worst year for the shortage — the bleakest scenario has the supply deficit at more than 48,000 aircraft maintenance workers, or a shortfall of about 27%. Our more likely scenario predicts a gap of almost 43,000, or more than 24%.”
The back of the envelope indicates if each of the 430,000 people in aviation maintenance produces an average of $325,663 in revenue, then the 12,000-18,000 shortage means we are failing to capture between $39.1tr and $58.6tr each year. If we had 43,000 more AMTs, that is roughly $14bn we are leaving on the table by not addressing workforce shortages in a wholesale industry-wide effort.
Boeing is hiring factory workers
Reuters: Boeing is hiring 100 to 140 factory workers a week to staff a fourth production line for the 737 MAX … In addition, it is hiring staff to manage parts, logistics, storage, tooling, transportation…Furthermore, it is expanding satellite production capacity and launching a new satellite platform. Boeing is targeting 26 satellite deliveries in 2026.
Honeywell Aerospace must hire for 1,200 positions in both engineering and manufacturing, citing growth in the aftermarket across its commercial, defense, and space divisions. Aviation Technician Education Council added, “only about 75% of FAA-licensed mechanics come out of specialized schools, driving demand for apprenticeship programs and workers shifting from other sectors.”
CAE 2025-2034 Talent Forecast: 300,000 pilots; 416,000 aviation maintenance engineers; 71,000 air traffic controllers; 678,000 cabin crew; Total 1,465,000. But that doesn’t include airports, state and federal workforces, business aviation, space, education, or general aviation.
AIA: A&D will require more than 1 million semiconductor engineers by 2030, said the 2025 report Accelerating Progress: Maximizing the Return on Talent in A&D. Significant shares of job exits and retirements will leave an equally large number of job openings to fill. For example, the number of new assemblers and fabricators needed in the workforce is not expected to grow until 2033, but by then, there will likely be around 210,000 job vacancies annually.
AIA reported that of the 70,000 engineers graduating annually in the US, only 44,000 are qualified to work in aerospace, and US companies face stiff competition for these candidates from major tech firms like Amazon and Apple. Between 2021 and 2031, the US will need 3,800 new aerospace engineers every year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
That suggests a need for collaboration between higher education and workforce development, something long sought by academics, identifying a need for the creation of so-called super-employees who can understand work across disciplines to innovate and problem solve.
Industry, Academia Must Break Down Silos to Develop Future Workforce
Aerospace America: “Despite volatility worldwide, there are more job openings than employees in commercial aerospace. Defense budgets are also growing to support the increase in global conflicts. One OEM estimates the US commercial aerospace segment alone could require an additional 123,000 technicians in the next two decades.
AIAA Members report that there are not enough people studying engineering to fill future jobs. A key target for companies year-round is mid-career professionals, according to a report. This group is harder to retain, driven by changing views of work by the younger and older A&D workforce.
“How costly is this talent drain? Andy Voelker, an associate partner at McKinsey, notes that the cost can be as high as $300m–$330m for a medium-sized company. The 2024 A&D talent gap report noted that frontline and middle managers are two times more likely to leave their employer than individual contributors.”
Alberta Aviation & Aerospace Council: Canada may experience major staffing shortages in the aviation industry over the next decade. A report by the revealed that by 2035, the country could be short about 55,000 aviation workers. In response, the organization launched a major workforce initiative to address critical labor shortages in Alberta’s aviation sector, funded by CAD$1.5m ($732,990). Like the US, Canada has an air traffic controller shortage.
Breaking Defense: With the White House initiative to deploy nuclear weapons in space, workforce training must start from scratch, since all nuclear workforce development is geared toward terrestrial nuclear power. In a review of the industry last year, space applications were not even mentioned in nuclear workforce-needs reports.
The Traveler said the rising MRO demand is colliding with workforce shortages and a lack of investment in AMT/AME training compared to that for pilots. Worse, younger workers are being courted by other trades, such as construction, theme parks, and automotive. This is especially acute since their unions pay for training.
GE Aerospace: Aerospace & Defense will require 3.8 million manufacturing jobs by 2033.
IATA: “[The global airline industry] commissioned a report on the supply chain crisis last year, which estimated that the additional cost borne by the airline industry was over $11bn,” reported CEO William Walsh at the Changi Aviation Summit. “Two-thirds went to fuel and maintenance costs. The industry is operating a fleet that is, on average, two years older than the long-term average due to delays in the delivery of new aircraft. Regrettably, we see this disruption continuing for some time to come.”
FAA Workforce Needs
FAA: Full air traffic control staffing was set at 14,663 in a 2025 report. Current staffing is at 11,000 nationally. Plans call for hiring 8900 controllers through 2028 in a system that lacks instructors. It also anticipates about 30% washout rate, but the FAA told the New York Times that the rate is dropping. FAA expects total attrition of 6,872 controllers through 2028.
Based on the FAA’s Aviation Safety Workforce Plan, the agency plans to hire approximately 4,600 new safety inspectors and engineers between 2025 and 2034 to support its Aviation Safety (AVS) organization. For Aviation Safety Inspectors, at 7200 today, the agency is anticipating hiring about 4,600 inspectors, engineers, and medical officers through 2034. In testimony before Congress, the Professional Aviation Safety Specialists (PASS) indicated it represents 11,000 Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and Department of Defense employees throughout the United States and abroad.
As a veteran aviation journalist, Kathryn Creedy has been employed by, consulted to, and written about the airline and aerospace industries for 40 years. She has been covering industry workforce issues for over 15 years.
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