For quite some time now, there have been rumors that United Airlines might be interested in buying JetBlue Airways. In March 2025, United CEO Scott Kirby even said that “JetBlue is the obvious candidate” for consolidation, and that “the ball is going to be in JetBlue’s court” when it comes to whether or not some sort of a deal happens.
The common wisdom has been that the reason that United hasn’t made a bid for JetBlue is due to concerns over regulatory approval. The two airlines launched a partnership last year, and it seemed like a “foot in the door” approach to closer cooperation.
Many airline executives believe that we’re going to see more industry consolidation soon, likely before the midterms. JetBlue is even reportedly actively looking at merger possibilities. However, in light of developments in recent days, I’d argue that this very moment is the ideal time for such a deal to be announced, in terms of maximizing odds of regulatory approval without too many concessions. Let me explain.
United’s strong case for acquiring JetBlue right now
The government is reportedly nearing a deal to essentially acquire Spirit Airlines (to give them a loan, which will likely result in the government owning around 90% of the airline). This is President Trump’s idea, and it’s completely nonsensical, if you ask me. Officially, one of Trump’s major motives seems to be to avoid Spirit’s 14,000 employees losing their jobs, since the optics of that aren’t good.
Much like Spirit, JetBlue hasn’t turned a profit since before the pandemic. While the airline isn’t in as dire of a situation as Spirit, the company is slowly heading in the direction of Chapter 11 bankruptcy. That would almost certainly result in a downsizing of some sort, and likely job losses.
If you ask me, the pieces are really coming together here for a deal:
- United CEO Scott Kirby has spent the entirety of Trump’s second term sucking up to him, saying nothing but positive things about his leadership
- JetBlue executives should essentially argue that they can no longer compete in today’s market given how the industry has evolved, which is an argument that Spirit executives should’ve better made when the DOJ was suing to block the merger
- Kirby will frame this as a patriotic thing that helps Trump, as he’s going to protect those jobs, and ensure the United States’ “flag carrier” can continue to grow, continuing with his airline “trade deficit” narrative; keep in mind Trump is trying to blame Spirit’s failure on Biden, and how Biden’s DOJ blocked JetBlue’s takeover of the airline
- The current jet fuel situation obviously exacerbates JetBlue’s challenges, and Trump doesn’t want the optics of more airlines going bankrupt or liquidating under his watch, but instead Trump gets a “big deal,” which he loves
- We know Trump wants to buy Spirit and then resell it, so maybe United then even steps in and buys Spirit, building a mega hub in Fort Lauderdale (FLL), as we know a Florida hub has been of interest to United
I can’t imagine a more perfect storm of circumstances that would maximize the odds of this deal getting approved with minimal concessions.
Why I think a merger could be worth it, even with JetBlue’s debt
JetBlue has close to $8 billion in debt, so obviously that’s a major concern for any airline that will potentially acquire it. That being said, that amount of debt is nothing new, and despite that, Kirby has been very vocal about his interest in a possible deal with the airline.
The argument that “oh, just let JetBlue file for bankruptcy, and then other airlines can pick up the assets” doesn’t make sense, because JetBlue would be filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy reorganization, rather than Chapter 7 liquidation. JetBlue’s assets wouldn’t suddenly become available. The airline might shrink and lay off people, but that’s different than going out of business.
But keep in mind that Kirby keeps talking about he wants United to essentially be the “national carrier” of the US, to be globally competitive. What JetBlue can bring to the table for United is unlocking three potentially lucrative markets (particularly with lots of credit card revenue):
- This would give United a huge presence in Boston (BOS), and allow the airline to overtake American, and go head-to-head against Delta
- We know United is interested in a Florida hub, and if United could get gates in Fort Lauderdale from both JetBlue and (possibly) Spirit, it could become a real competitor to American in South Florida (and you know what joy that would bring Kirby)
- And of course the holy grail for United is New York (JFK), which United is desperate to return to, as the airline doesn’t fly there; the biggest competitive question comes down to the extent to which regulators consider JFK and Newark (EWR) to be separate markets
Times have changed. It’s not like 2010, where the main strategic consideration with hubs was how far apart they were geographically. Now it’s also about markets with a lot of potential credit card spending, even if they’re geographically close to other hubs.
I also do actually think this deal would be in the best interest of the public, in terms of actually increasing competition. JFK is an incredibly valuable hub to have, but its value is largely lost on an airline like JetBlue, which primarily operates domestic flights. People don’t want to fly to Florida from JFK, they want to fly from New York LaGuardia (LGA). So JetBlue has a super valuable hub for a global airline like United, it’s just not utilizing it in a way that’s useful.
Anyway, I have no clue if a deal will or won’t happen. I do feel that if a deal were to happen, this very moment would be the ideal time. If nothing happens, then I think it’s safe to say that Kirby has either been bluffing all along, or has had a change of heart.
Bottom line
I don’t know if a deal will happen or not, but I couldn’t imagine a more perfect storm of circumstances when it comes to maximizing the odds of potential approval for United acquiring JetBlue. We’re at the point where the federal government is seriously considering buying Spirit, just to avoid layoffs.
If United CEO Scott Kirby really wants to buy JetBlue, logically I’d expect we’ll see something very soon. If we don’t see something, I suspect he had a change of heart or was just bluffing.
Is my theory totally off base, or where do you stand on this?
