Editor’s note: This developing story has been updated with a comment from the Ukrainian government.
VIENNA — A NATO air policing jet has shot down what authorities suspect was a Ukrainian drone flying over Estonia, a first after several similar airspace incursions in the Baltic states.
The drone was shot down by a Romanian F-16 fighter jet stationed in Šiauliai, Lithuania, Estonian media reported from a press conference by the defense ministry in Tallinn. Estonian radars had detected the threat before it entered the country’s airspace, according to the Estonian minister of defense, Hanno Pevkur.
The shootdown has been confirmed by several high-ranking Estonian government officials.
The drone fell into a swampy area between Lake Võrtsjärv and Põltsamaa just before 13:00 local time.
Around two hours after the incident, Ukraine issued a public apology, with Ukrainian foreign ministry spokesperson Heorhii Tykhyi saying that “we apologize to Estonia and all of our Baltic friends for such unintended incidents.”
Estonia’s air force commander, Brig. Gen. Riivo Valge, was cited as saying that a residual threat to the Baltic states remained, adding that “it may happen that we may have a repeat of the situation today.”
The wreckage of the drone shot down today has not yet been recovered, and Estonian authorities warned residents not to touch any debris. The civil alert associated with the airspace incursion has been lifted.
The shoot-down comes just hours after Russia had used martial language to threaten Latvia, with the SVR − Russia’s foreign intelligence agency − claiming without evidence that Latvia was planning to allow Ukraine to use its territory to launch drones against Russia. The Moscow-based agency said that NATO membership “will not protect the accomplices of terrorists from just retribution.”
Latvia has denied any such claims, with the country’s foreign minister taking to X to state that “Russia lies again.”
Tykhyi, the Ukrainian foreign ministry spokesperson, said that “neither Estonia, nor Latvia, Lithuania, or Finland have ever allowed to use their airspace for strikes against Russia. Furthermore, Ukraine has never requested such a use.”
This year has seen several incidents of Ukrainian drones entering Baltic NATO countries’ airspaces and, in some cases, even crashing into critical infrastructure. An accidental strike on an empty Latvian oil refinery last week prompted the resignation of both the prime minister and the defense minister there. Previously, drones had hit a power plant chimney in Estonia and fallen into a lake in Lithuania.
Speculation and some tacit official acknowledgment have surfaced that Russia may be using electronic warfare measures to redirect long-range strike drones from Ukraine meant for Russian targets towards the NATO countries at the eastern end of the Baltic Sea.
“Russia continues to redirect Ukrainian drones into the Baltics with the use of its electronic warfare,” the Ukrainian MFA said. “And Moscow does this on purpose, together with intensified propaganda.”
Russia has exploited the drone incidents in a coordinated media campaign, sidestepping claims of EW measures to place blame on the Baltic States and Finland for allegedly “opening their airspaces” to Ukrainian drones. Foreign ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said in April that those countries “will face consequences.”
Linus Höller is Defense News’ Europe correspondent and OSINT investigator. He reports on the arms deals, sanctions, and geopolitics shaping Europe and the world. He holds master’s degrees in WMD nonproliferation, terrorism studies, and international relations, and works in four languages: English, German, Russian, and Spanish.
