Canada’s long-delayed F-35A fighter jet program is facing renewed uncertainty as Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government weighs whether to proceed with its planned fleet of 88 aircraft from Lockheed Martin or diversify toward a mixed fleet that could include Saab’s Gripen E.
The Liberal government first announced in March 2025 that it would “review” the purchase, citing heightened trade and diplomatic tensions with the United States. The move came as Canada was entering an election campaign.
Following his re-election, Carney has advocated for greater “diversification” in Ottawa’s defense and industrial partnerships. That stance was underscored by a new defense and trade cooperation framework signed with the European Union in June 2025.
Decision still pending
Canada’s F-35 saga dates back to July 2010, when then-Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s Conservative government announced plans to buy 65 F-35As for CAD 9 billion ($6.5 billion), arguing the aircraft was essential for national defense and Arctic sovereignty.
The decision quickly drew controversy. During the 2015 election, Liberal leader Justin Trudeau vowed to cancel the sole-source deal, accusing the Conservatives of bypassing competition and committing to an “unnecessary and expensive fighter.” After taking office, Trudeau’s government confirmed it would seek alternatives.
That pledge led to the launch of the Future Fighter Capability Project (FFCP) in 2017, an open competition to replace the CF-18s. Several manufacturers initially participated, including Boeing with the F/A-18 Super Hornet, Dassault Aviation with the Rafale, and Airbus with the Eurofighter Typhoon.
Dassault withdrew in 2018, citing interoperability and security concerns linked to Canada’s participation in the Five Eyes intelligence alliance, while Airbus followed in 2019, arguing the competition’s terms favored Lockheed Martin. In 2021, Boeing’s Super Hornet bid was also disqualified for undisclosed reasons.
In 2022, the Department of National Defence selected the F-35A over Saab’s JAS 39 Gripen E/F, and Ottawa formally notified an initial order for 16 aircraft in January 2023. However, the remainder of the 88-jet fleet remains unconfirmed.
A final decision was initially expected by the end of the summer, yet Carney’s office has not announced any outcome. While the RCAF remains firmly in favor of the F-35, key cabinet figures, including Minister of Industry Mélanie Joly, have raised concerns about the contract’s economic balance.
Military urges urgency
During a recent parliamentary hearing, Deputy Minister of National Defence Stefanie Beck defended the F-35 acquisition, arguing that fifth-generation capabilities are essential to maintain parity with adversaries.
“It is impossible to underestimate the importance of having fifth-generation aircraft because that is what our adversaries have,” Beck said, pointing to Russia’s Su-57 and China’s J-20 and J-35 fighters.
RCAF Commander General Jamie Speiser-Blanchet echoed that warning, noting that both countries field advanced aircraft and high-speed missile systems. “It is urgent to transition to a new fleet of fighters,” she said.
Economic pressures mount
Despite military backing, the F-35’s ballooning costs remain contentious. A 2024 report from the Office of the Auditor General of Canada (OAG) estimated that the total acquisition cost had increased by at least 46% since 2022, reaching CAD 27.7 billion ($20 billion).
Joly has since pressed Lockheed Martin to provide additional industrial benefits or risk seeing the order scaled down.
“Ottawa could obtain further commitments from Lockheed Martin in exchange for maintaining the 88-fighter contract,” Joly said in an interview on October 12, 2025. “Otherwise, the government could procure fewer F-35s and complement them with Gripen Es assembled in Canada.”
Joly added that her priority was ensuring taxpayers’ money “reduces dependence on the United States and creates jobs in Canada.”
Debate over a mixed fleet
The proposal to split procurement between the F-35 and Gripen faces strong resistance from defense officials. According to a study cited by Reuters in August 2025, the military warned that maintaining two fighter fleets would be “inefficient from an operational standpoint.”
Joly dismissed that view, arguing that “all G7 countries have mixed fleets” and that Canada should pursue a similar model.
“My objective is to obtain more industrial value from Lockheed Martin while continuing discussions with Saab,” Joly concluded.
Canada and Sweden signed a major aerospace and defence partnership in August 2025, with Ottawa and Stockholm pledging joint research, technology development, and industrial cooperation. The agreement emphasised Arctic security as a shared priority amid rising Russian activity and alliance realignments in the High North.
