Azerbaijan and Russia have reached a formal settlement over the downing of an Azerbaijan Airlines (AZAL) Embraer E190 that crashed near Aktau, Kazakhstan, on December 25, 2024, killing 38 of the 67 people on board. The agreement includes compensation payments and formally attributes the crash to the unintended firing of a Russian air defense system.
The foreign ministries of both countries announced the deal in a joint statement on April 15, 2026, declaring that the settlement had been reached in accordance with agreements made between Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Russian President Vladimir Putin during their meeting in Dushanbe on October 9, 2025.
The statement confirmed that the crash resulted from an “unintentional action” of an air defense system in Russian airspace, and that both sides had resolved all outstanding issues, including the payment of compensation. Neither government has disclosed the amounts, terms or specific recipients of the payments.
A 16-month diplomatic crisis
The settlement marks the end of the most serious rupture in Azerbaijani-Russian relations since the collapse of the Soviet Union. The crisis began immediately after the incident, when the AZAL Embraer E190 (registration 4K-AZ65), operating flight J2-8243 from Baku to Grozny, was diverted across the Caspian Sea and crash-landed near Aktau upon sustaining damage while in Russian airspace. Twenty-nine people survived.
Within days of the disaster, Baku publicly accused Moscow of shooting down the aircraft. President Aliyev denounced Russia’s initial explanations, including suggestions of a bird strike or an onboard gas cylinder explosion, as “absurd theories,” demanding instead that Moscow admit guilt, apologize, punish those responsible, and pay compensation.
A preliminary investigation report released on February 4, 2025, concluded that the aircraft had been damaged by “external objects” penetrating the fuselage, with puncture holes visible along the tail section consistent with missile fragmentation. Azerbaijani investigators had recovered fragments matching the 57E6-E missile used by the Russian Pantsir-S1 air defense system.
Russia initially deflected blame. An Azerbaijani media investigation later reported that the general who ordered the strike was subsequently promoted, rather than prosecuted. In July 2025, Aliyev announced that Azerbaijan would sue Russia in the international courts, drawing parallels with the downing of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 over eastern Ukraine in 2014.
The dispute spilled into other areas of the bilateral relationship. Azerbaijan closed the Russian House cultural center in Baku, arrested the management of Sputnik Azerbaijan on espionage allegations, and detained eight Russian citizens on criminal charges. Russia, meanwhile, arrested Azerbaijani nationals in Yekaterinburg in a separate case, with two suspects dying in circumstances assessed differently by the two governments.
Putin’s October 2025 acknowledgment
The turning point came when Putin acknowledged for the first time, during the October 9, 2025, meeting in Dushanbe, that Russian air defense missiles had been fired near the aircraft.
He said the two missiles did not strike the plane directly but detonated approximately 10 meters away, with debris causing damage rather than warhead impact. Though somewhat intended to diminish the seriousness of the incident, this distinction is misleading: proximity-fused missiles like the Pantsir’s 57E6-E are designed to detonate near a target, destroying it through fragmentation. The same principle was responsible for the destruction of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 over eastern Ukraine in 2014, albeit with a larger Buk missile.
Putin apologized to Aliyev and pledged compensation. Following that meeting, some of the broader bilateral tensions began to ease. The head of Sputnik Azerbaijan was released from custody in Baku, and Aliyev acknowledged what he called positive dynamics in the relationship.
Unanswered questions
However, no compensation figures have been disclosed, and the statement does not specify whether the payments will cover victims’ families, survivors, the airline, or some combination. It is also unclear whether Azerbaijan has formally withdrawn its threat to pursue legal action in the international courts.
Kazakhstan’s investigation into the crash, led by Deputy Prime Minister Kanat Bozumbayev, is reportedly coming to an end, but has not yet published a final report.
