Is it just me, or is this a very strange several weeks for the airline industry? I never thought I’d write the first part of the above headline, because the concept is just so outlandish.
American says United merger would be bad for consumers
Several days ago, it was reported that in late February 2026, United CEO Scott Kirby approached the Trump administration about the concept of a merger with American. Kirby reportedly tried to argue that a combined airline would be a stronger competitor internationally (which I think is a really bad take, given the way joint ventures are structured, but I digress).
Such a deal would combine the world’s two largest airlines, so under normal circumstances, you’d assume there’s almost no chance of something like this getting regulatory approval. Trump is a quirky guy, though, so… who knows. It’s suggested that the White House was skeptical of such a concept, especially at a time when affordability is such an issue, ahead of the midterms.
There’s now an update, as American has gone on record as saying that it’s not interested in a merger with United, claiming it would be bad for consumers, and that it’s not consistent with the company’s understanding of the Trump administration’s approach to antirust enforcement. Specifically, here’s the statement:
We appreciate the leadership and strong support of President Trump, Secretary Duffy and numerous other leaders in the Administration who have demonstrated expertise and an ongoing commitment to continue to improve the world’s best aviation industry.
American Airlines is not engaged with or interested in any discussions regarding a merger with United Airlines. While changes in the broader airline marketplace may be necessary, a combination with United would be negative for competition and for consumers, and therefore inconsistent with our understanding of the Administration’s philosophy toward the industry and principles of antitrust law. Our focus will remain on executing on our strategic objectives and positioning American to win for the long term.
We look forward to continuing to work collaboratively with the Administration as it takes steps to strengthen the broader airline industry.
My take on American “rejecting” United’s merger intest
I don’t think most reasonable people were expecting that a United and American merger would get regulatory approval, even under Trump. I do think American publicly stating that this is bad for consumers further closes the door on any possibility of this.
I still can’t help but be curious what was going on in Kirby’s head. He’s a smart guy, so did he just have a moment of delusion, or was he just trying to feel out Trump, to see what he’d actually be open to? Don’t get me wrong, I’m sure Kirby would love for it to happen, but it just seems highly unrealistic.
I tend to think Kirby has three primary things that conceptually motivate him:
- Catching up with Delta financially
- Taking revenge on and trash talking American, his former employer
- Returning to JFK in a meaningful way
I can’t imagine that Kirby actually thought such a deal would get approval, though I suspect he took the approach of “you miss 100% of the shots you don’t take.” For that matter, suggesting an American merger and then “settling” for a JetBlue merger makes that seem much more reasonable, by comparison.
However, I also think American’s statement is worth taking note of. The airline didn’t need to make any statement about this, and it could’ve also just said that it believes a combination with United would be negative for competition and for consumers.
But the airline went on to mention how “changes in the broader airline marketplace may be necessary,” and that the carrier’s focus will remain executing on its “strategic objectives and positioning American to win for the long term.”
That’s… an interesting statement for American to volunteer. American is clearly signaling that it thinks there will be consolidation, and seems to be hinting at the possibility of it engaging in some consolidation of its own.
I think it’s going to be a very interesting several weeks. While JetBlue has a debt issue, I continue to think that we could ultimately see both American and United compete to buy JetBlue. United definitely doesn’t want American buying JetBlue, and American definitely doesn’t want United buying JetBlue (admittedly United is in a better financial situation, so…).
Bottom line
We recently learned that United CEO Scott Kirby approached the Trump administration about the concept of a merger with American. American has now responded by saying that it’s not interested in a merger with United, that it would be bad for consumers, and that the airline doesn’t think such a deal would get regulatory approval.
However, airlines are very deliberate when they issue statements on topics like this, and I can’t help but take note of the mention of how “changes in the broader airline marketplace may be necessary,” and how the airline will focus on its “strategic objectives and positioning American to win for the long term.” Is American hinting at some possible consolidation interest of its own, or…?
What do you make of American’s “rejection” of United?
