Airbus has forecasted that the global fleet of dedicated freighters is expected to increase by 45% to reach 3,420 aircraft over the next 20 years.
The prediction was part of the planemaker’s 2025 Cargo Global Market Forecast (GMF), released on October 22, 2025. The company said the figure will consist of 815 existing freighters and 2,605 additional ones. Out of these 2,605 new freighters, 1,530 will replace older models, while 1,075 will be added for expansion.
The 2,605 new freighters will be categorized into 1,120 small aircraft, 855 mid-size widebodies, and 630 large widebodies. In total, among the 2,605 additional freighters, 1,670 will be converted from passenger aircraft, and 935 will be newly built freighters.
Why air cargo is booming
According to Airbus, World Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and trade remain the main drivers of air cargo.
With a long-term trade growth rate expected to be 2.7% Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR), Airbus anticipates that air cargo will grow at an annual rate of 3.3% over the next two decades, nearly doubling cargo volumes.
The European aircraft manufacturer said it forecasts significant air cargo growth as it has proved essential – not just to support economies, but also to connect remote communities, transport essential and health-critical goods, and enable local business development in emerging countries.
Asia-Pacific and North America drives cargo growth
Airbus also predicted that many of the older freighters will exit the fleet and be replaced by newer, more fuel-efficient models like the A350F or A320/A321 and A330 Passenger-to-Freighter (P2F) conversions.
The company said it also anticipates diversification of trade routes and air cargo flows as more nations in the Asia-Pacific region develop into industrial centers.
Similarly, GDP and demographic projections suggest that emerging countries like Brazil, Indonesia, and Vietnam will become significant consumer markets in the next few decades. Airbus said that this will lead to a gradual shift in air cargo geography and the global air freight map.
Of the total need for 2,605 freighter deliveries over the next 20 years, nearly two-thirds of the demand will come from Asia-Pacific and North America, which will need 850 and 920 aircraft, respectively.
In its latest 20-year Global Market Forecast released on June 11, 2025, Airbus stated that a total of 43,420 new passenger and freighter aircraft will be needed between 2025 and 2044.
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