Holiday Air Cargo Booking Tips for Forwarders
If you’re locking in freight two weeks out in December and sleeping easy, sorry – the data would like a word. We dug through millions of holiday-season air cargo bookings on the Freightos platform, and the pattern is annoyingly consistent: December is the one month where “book early to be safe” quietly stops working.
Same-week bookings? Pretty normal. The weirdness lives in long-lead bookings – anything more than a week out. Those are 2–3 percentage points more likely to get canceled in the run-up to Christmas than at other times of year. And yes, the farther out you go, the more it stings.
Example: shipments booked more than two weeks before Christmas are about 10% more likely to get canceled than shipments booked two weeks out in October. So book away…just don’t treat early December space like it’s sacred. It’s more like a “probably fine, but keep your shoes on” situation.
The Breakdown
What usually happens (aka, even in a normal month)
Carrier acceptance is still strong – around 97% of eBookings get accepted. But timing matters more than most of us want to admit on a busy Tuesday.
Across typical months:
- Same-week bookings are the most stable.
- Long-lead bookings (7+ days out) are already 2–3x more likely to get canceled than last-minute ones.
So even when things are calm, early bookings are the soft underbelly. December just kicks that soft spot harder.
What changes before Christmas (spoiler: it’s not the part you think)
In the three weeks before December 25th, the baseline pattern doesn’t flip – it gets amplified.
Short-lead bookings barely move:
- 0–1 day and 2–3 day lead times see only about a 0.5–1 percentage point rise in cancellations vs. October.
Early bookings take the hit:
- 4–7 days out: cancellations are ~5–7% more likely than October.
- 8–14 days out: cancellations are ~10–12% more likely than October.
Translation: as holiday pressure builds, airlines protect near-term space first and squeeze long-lead bookings first. Your early commitment is basically the sacrificial goat.
Why this matters
The intuitive December strategy is “book early so you don’t get burned.”
The data says: early December bookings are exactly where you’re most likely to get burned.
Holiday risk isn’t evenly spread. It clusters right where planners feel safest – long-lead freight booked with confidence that turns out to be premature.
Cancellations are still rare overall. But if they’re going to happen, this is where they live. Think of it as the industry’s annual reminder that control is an illusion.
What to do about it (without losing your mind)
- Treat long-lead December bookings as higher-risk inventory, not guaranteed space.
Anything booked more than a week out within the 21 days before Christmas should be flagged for extra attention. - Re-check and re-secure closer to departure.
The nearer you get to ship date, the more stable acceptance becomes. Yes, it’s annoying. Yes, it works. - For truly time-critical cargo, lean slightly shorter-lead (3–4 days).
You’re not being reckless – you’re aligning with where reliability actually concentrates in December. - Spread exposure across carriers.
December is not the month to go all-in early with one airline unless you like living dangerously. - Use the data story with customers.
“X% more likely than October” is the easiest way to justify contingencies without sounding like you’re predicting doom.
Because in holiday freight, speed still wins…but timing decides whether that speed survives first contact with reality.
