A couple of days ago, I posed the question of whether the government shutdown is about to “break” our air travel ecosystem, given increasing staffing issues with air traffic control and security. Along those lines, United States Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy made some noteworthy comments on Tuesday, and a reader has a take on this that I think is worth sharing…
Government threatens to close some airspace next week
A reader shared the following comment with me, which I’ll share in its entirety:
Ben, are you going to write about this weird threat SecDOT issued? He framed it like a warning, but it was clearly a threat. Closing airspace, even in the midst of this shutdown, would be unprecedented and unwarranted. To wit:
In January 2019, ten controllers called in sick. LaGuardia shut down. Hours later, Trump ended the shutdown. His aides admitted that the chaos in aviation forced the deal.
The FAA has never closed airspace for staffing reasons, only for security or weather. Threatening closures a week in advance while clearly blaming Democrats is just politics, not operations.
Republicans control everything yet trail 52-42 in polls regarding shutdown blame. The administration acknowledges it is inflicting pain to pressure Democrats. Trump said, “We are shutting down Democrat programs… they’re getting killed.”
So Duffy creates a crisis, announces it ahead of time, and assigns blame before it happens. This is clever if you are okay with using national airspace to win a political battle you are losing.
For context, this is in reference to comments Duffy made about air traffic controllers getting an email pay stub this Thursday indicating that they’re not getting a paycheck for a second time. To quote Duffy:
“Many of the controllers said, ‘a lot of us can navigate missing one paycheck, none of us can manage missing two paychecks.’ So if you bring us to a week from today, Democrats, you will see mass chaos, you will see mass flight delays, you will see mass cancelations, and you may see us close certain parts of the airspace, because we just cannot manage it because we don’t have the air traffic controllers.”
For the purposes of this discussion, let’s ignore that some air traffic controllers make over $200K per year (often living in cities that aren’t terribly expensive), but “none” of them can afford to miss more than one paycheck. I realize we’re not good at living within our means in the United States, but oy.
So, what do I make of Duffy’s comments, and the above theory? As I wrote about a couple of days ago, aviation is absolutely the thing that could cause action to be taken regarding the shutdown, since it’s one of the most direct ways that the public is impacted by this. People don’t like anyone messing with their travel plans.
Conceptually, I agree with Duffy regarding his belief that our aviation system will “break” soon, and it might coincide with the second set of missed paychecks. After all, this government shutdown has now been the longest in history.
But here’s the thing I find concerning — it’s one thing if I say that, as a dude who writes stuff on the internet for a living, and nothing more. It’s a little different when the Transportation Secretary says it, especially when air traffic controllers legally have to come to work.
It’s almost like Duffy is signaling to them “hey, next week is a good time to break the law and not go to work,” while repeatedly blaming Democrats. The threat of airspace closing also just seems a bit much. It’s one thing to have delays and cancelations, but having the government close airspace? That’s a drastic and unprecedented prediction.
The problem is, I don’t actually see which party will budge here. We obviously need compromise, but that’s just not happening. From a public perception standpoint, I think most people would agree it would be idiotic for the Democrats to just fully give in, as the Trump administration has been pushing for.
The frustration so many people have had with the Democratic party is how weak they’ve been for years, and just fully giving in several weeks into the shutdown certainly won’t be a “win.” Furthermore, at least based on all the polls I’ve seen (and if there are reputable ones I’m missing that paint a different picture, please tell me) public perception is that Republicans are more to blame than Democrats. So this definitely doesn’t seem like an area where Democrats would be well advised to back down.
Bottom line
Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy predicts that our aviation ecosystem will no longer function properly as of next week, and even suggests the government could shut down airspace, which would be an unprecedented move, for those purposes. We’ll see how this plays out, but I don’t think anyone can say with certainty that this isn’t a political play.
What do you make of Duffy’s comments about potential airspace closures?
