On September 19, 2025, NATO intercepted three Russian fighter jets that violated Estonian airspace in what has been described as a “brazen” intrusion. The Russian MiG-31 fighters remained in Estonian airspace for nearly 12 minutes before Italian F-35s responded, forcing them to retreat. This is the fourth violation of Estonian airspace by Russia this year.
Following the incursion, Estonia’s Prime Minister, Kristen Michal, announced that the government had decided to request NATO Article 4 consultations. This provision calls on all member states to “consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence, or security of any of the Parties is threatened.”
Russia’s Increasingly Bold Incursions
Russian military incursions along the Eastern NATO flank borders have become increasingly bold over the past few weeks. The recent violation of Estonian airspace comes just a week after 19 drones were detected in Polish airspace. Just hours after the breach into Estonian airspace, Poland’s border guard reported that two Russian fighter jets made a “low-level pass” over a Baltic Sea oil platform operated by the Polish company Petrobaltic. Over the summer, multiple drones also violated Lithuanian and Latvian airspace.
The latest incursion by three Russian MiG-31s has been described as a “brazen” violation of NATO’s airspace. In response, Italian F-35s were scrambled to intercept the Russian jets, while Sweden and Finland also deployed rapid response aircraft. The Italian F-35 fighters are stationed in Estonia as part of NATO’s Eastern Sentry operation. Major Taavi Karotamm, spokesperson for the Estonian Defense Forces, said that the Russian planes flew parallel to the Estonian border from east to west and did not head toward the capital, Tallinn. Commenting on the aggressive airspace violation, Estonia’s Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna said:
“Russia has already violated Estonia’s airspace four times this year, which in itself is unacceptable. But today’s incursion, involving three fighter aircraft entering our airspace, is unprecedentedly brazen. Russia’s increasing attempts to test borders and aggressiveness must be responded to by rapidly increasing political and economic pressure.”
The United States President Donald Trump spoke out about the airspace violation, stating that this incident could cause “big trouble.” Speaking in the Oval Office, the US president said that “I don’t love it when that happens,” and added that he would “look into” the reports.
Since Donald Trump’s inauguration, he has promised to end the war between Russia and Ukraine, but to this day, he has been unable to do so. Since then, Russia’s aggressive and escalatory actions, not only against Ukraine but also against NATO countries, have escalated in an attempt to test their capabilities. Now, Trump says that he is “ready” to add more sanctions on Russia if NATO nations stop buying Russian oil. It is worth noting that NATO countries such as Turkey are major buyers of Russian oil.
In response to the latest airspace interception, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said, “Europe stands with Estonia in the face of Russia’s latest violation of our airspace.” She added that Europe will respond to “every provocation with determination” while investing “in a stronger Eastern flank.”
Contrasting Moves From Washington
The aggressive incursions into NATO’s eastern flank airspace come just more than a week after the United States lifted some sanctions on Belarus’ national airline, Belavia, a move seen as a step toward normalizing ties with one of Russia’s closest allies. The announcement also coincided with Belarus’ decision to release 52 political prisoners.
Together, these developments point to a possible warming of relations between the US and Belarus. Just last month, President Donald Trump spoke by phone with Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko, even suggesting that a face-to-face meeting could follow.
Since 2021, Belavia has faced US and EU sanctions imposed after the forced diversion of Ryanair flight FR 4978 to Minsk, which led to the arrest of opposition journalist Raman Pratasevich. Belarus and its companies were also sanctioned for allowing Russia to use its territory to launch a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The sanctions on the airline prohibited belavia from ordering and leasing Western-made aircraft as well as from accessing spare parts or maintenance services.
