This is purely speculation on my part, but am I the only one who thinks this will finally be the week where our aviation ecosystem in the United States “breaks,” and that will move the needle with the government shutdown?
United States aviation is reaching a breaking point
The government in the United States has now been shut down for 33 days and counting, with no end in sight. So while most federal workers still have to go to work, they’re not getting paychecks.
That’s perhaps not a huge deal for those with a safety net, but with two-thirds of Americans living paycheck to paycheck, this starts to become really complicated. After all, a promise of getting retroactive pay at some point doesn’t help put food on the table today, doesn’t pay for childcare, etc.
For roughly the first month of the shutdown, the aviation industry was pretty resilient, in terms of staffing levels for air traffic controllers and TSA officers. However, in recent days, things are going a bit less smoothly, and there’s a noticeable decline.
On the air traffic control front, we’re seeing more and more cases of controller shortages causing ground delay programs. Just keep an eye on the FAA’s National Airspace System Status over the coming days, and I suspect things won’t be looking very pretty.
On the TSA front, we’re also increasingly hearing stories of staffing shortages causing very long security lines.
I have to imagine that these issues will get worse rather than better with every passing day. And even consistently small staffing shortages can have a disproportionate impact on keeping things moving smoothly, given that our system doesn’t have much of a buffer.
The airline industry has the power to end the shutdown
The last government shutdown happened in late 2018 and early 2019, and lasted for 35 days. That was the longest shutdown in nearly 50 years, so we’re just a couple of days from reaching that point.
What ended that shutdown? Well, it ended just hours after the FAA was forced to limit flights at many major airports due to a lack of staffing among air traffic controllers. The airline industry has disproportionate implications for society. People can deal with issues with other government services, but if you mess with their ability to travel smoothly, then suddenly you have their attention!
It sure seems like we’re going to reach that point in the very near future. The way I see it, there’s just one big issue — I don’t actually see which party will budge, given that in our political climate, the concept of compromise no longer seems to be a thing, and backing down would be viewed as defeat.
Bottom line
The government shutdown in the United States has now lasted for 33 days and counting, and no real progress has been made. The previous shutdown was the longest in around 50 years, and lasted for 35 days, so we’re approaching that point.
What I find noteworthy is that the last shutdown ended due to staffing issues with air traffic control, and it’s increasingly looking like we’re reaching the point where that’s becoming an issue again, along with TSA staffing shortages. The question is, can the parties actually find a way to negotiate to end this?
Do you think we’re reaching the point where aviation issues could end the government shutdown?
