MILAN — Russia is not expected to attack any NATO member states in the next two years, a testament, in part, to European efforts to quickly boost their defenses in the last few years, the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service concluded in a report this week.
But Moscow’s re-organization of its military around drones and significant ammunition production signals that the regime is preparing for future large-scale conflicts, according to Estonian analysts.
The annual assessment highlighted that while there is no cause for panic, Moscow is rapidly building its military capabilities to counter European security improvements.
“Russia has no intention of militarily attacking Estonia or any other NATO state in 2026 – we are likely to reach a similar assessment next year, because Tallinn and Europe have taken steps to compel the Kremlin to calculate very carefully what, if anything, it can risk, attempting,” the report said.
The Baltic state’s risk analysis was less alarming than warnings issued by NATO chief Mark Rutte and other European leaders in 2025 about a possible Russian attack in the near future.
Russia’s military-industrial complex, even if strained by sanctions, has continued to grow significantly, the Estonian report notes. Since 2021, the country’s artillery ammunition production has increased seventeen-fold, from a total output of 400,000 to seven million shells, mortar rounds, and rockets.
Companies in 2025 cranked out an estimated 3.4 million artillery projectiles, 800,000 million tank and infantry fighting vehicle ammunition, 2.3 million mortar rounds, and 500,000 million rockets for multiple-launch rocket systems.
Estonia’s intelligence branch estimated that the procurement cost was approximately 1 trillion rubles ($12.6 billion) last year, which remains low in comparison to ammunition production in Western nations.
“For example, an older 152mm shell model costs less (about €1,050, or $1,300) in state procurement, which is several times cheaper than similar 155mm rounds produced in Western countries,” the report noted.
In addition, since 2023, Moscow has bought up to 7 million shells from its proxies, including Iran and North Korea.
Drones everywhere
One trend highlighted in the Estonian report is how Russia is increasingly adapting its armed forces for unmanned warfare. Based on the insertion of drone capabilities across all military branches, Estonian intelligence warned that countries should expect an opponent mass-deploying these weapons in the air, at sea, and on land.
“In the event of a conflict, the state must be prepared to fight an adversary using large numbers of unmanned systems at strategic, operational, and tactical levels across all domains, simultaneously across Estonia’s entire territory,” the report said.
Estonian analysts singled out the Russian Navy’s newly created units of surface strike drones, planned to be integrated across all of its fleets, including the Baltic Fleet and Caspian Flotilla.
“These [unmanned naval strike vehicle] units will augment Russia’s existing intelligence, naval-strike, indirect-fire and precision-strike capabilities in Estonia’s immediate vicinity,” the assessment concluded.
Against this backdrop, the Baltic state is strengthening its unmanned systems capabilities with plans to roll out a major integration across their defense forces over the next few years.
Earlier this month, the country announced that the NIB, a bank that finances projects benefiting the Nordic-Baltic region, was contributing a €11.4 million loan to fund a new drone technology unit within the Applied Research Centre in Tallinn.
The purpose of the new department will be to provide laboratories to test and manufacture aerial, land, and naval drones.
Elisabeth Gosselin-Malo is a Europe correspondent for Defense News. She covers a wide range of topics related to military procurement and international security, and specializes in reporting on the aviation sector. She is based in Milan, Italy.
