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Home » Embraer forecasts delivery growth as backlog jumps 20%
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Embraer forecasts delivery growth as backlog jumps 20%

FlyMarshall NewsroomBy FlyMarshall NewsroomMarch 6, 2026No Comments6 Mins Read
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By Thomas Blackwood

Mar 6, 2026, © Leeham News: Embraer expects to increase deliveries from both its commercial and executive aviation units this year after posting record revenue in the full fiscal year 2025 as the backlog grew by a fifth.

In its results published on Friday, the Brazilian plane-maker recorded revenues of $7.58 billion in 2025, the highest annual level ever, an 18% year over year increase and above the high end of Embraer’s guidance. 

The Defense & Security and Executive Aviation divisions performed particularly well, with revenues up 36% and 25% yoy respectively – although the results were weaker for the company’s Commercial Aviation unit, despite a strong showing for its E2. 

Embraer’s adjusted EBIT stood at $656.8 million for 2025, including a $54 million hit from U.S. import tariffs. That compared with $708.2 million adjusted EBIT in Embraer’s 2024 results, or $558.2 million excluding the payout from the Boeing arbitration.

“This performance was achieved despite the impact of U.S. import tariffs, and reflects our discipline in our ongoing cost reduction initiatives and efficiency gains,” Chief Financial Officer Antonio Carlos Garcia said in a call with analysts on Friday morning. 

Guidance for 2026 shows a target for Commercial Aviation deliveries of between 80 and 85 aircraft and Executive Aviation deliveries between 160 and 170 aircraft. The upper end of the guidance, 255 deliveries, would result in a 4.5% increase in deliveries yoy.

Embraer’s financial highlights

For 4Q2025, Embraer achieved revenues totalling $2.65 billion, a 15% increase yoy. 

The headline figures disguise a softening within Embraer’s Commercial Aviation segment, with revenues down 1% yoy at $974 million for the quarter, mainly reflecting what Embraer said was differences in customer mix. 

Profitability was also softer, with gross margin declining from 12.5% to 8.6% and adjusted EBIT margin falling from 8.5% to 4.1%. This was largely driven by the mix effect as well as higher production costs, including logistics and other operating expenses.

Executive Aviation delivered a stronger performance, with revenues reaching $750 million in the quarter, up 20% year-on-year on the back of higher delivery volumes and pricing. 

Embraer’s Commercial Aviation deliveries graph. Credit: Embraer

Gross margin improved slightly from 16.8% to 17.3%, while adjusted EBIT margin was up from 10.3% to 10.5%. The benefits from higher volumes, pricing and operating leverage offset the impact of U.S. tariffs during the period, of $24 million.

In Defense & Security, revenues rose to $345 million, a 48% year-on-year increase. This was mainly driven by stronger KC-390 revenue. The gross margin came in at a more normalized 13.5%, compared with a particularly strong 28.3% in the prior-year quarter. As a result, adjusted EBIT margin declined from 17.5% to 6.8%.

Revenues in Embraer’s Services & Support division totaled $552 million in the quarter, 25% higher yoy The gross margin increased from 29.4% to 32.2% yoy, with an adjusted EBIT margin up from 17.4% to 21.4% you. 

Speaking to analysts on a Friday morning call, Chief Financial Officer Antonio Carlos Garcia said: “Despite a year marked by challenge and volatility, the company remained focused on discipline, execution, delivering results in line with its commitments.”

Embraer E195-E2. Credit: Embraer

Backlog grows 20%

The generally strong revenue picture is supported by a backlog that reached a record $31.6 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025. Compared with a year earlier, the company’s total backlog grew by 20%. 

Commercial Aviation and Defense & Security saw particularly strong growth, with backlogs rising 42% and 10% year-on-year, respectively. Services & Support increased by 7%, while Executive Aviation posted a more modest 3% year-on-year rise.

For the year, the company generated $656.8 million in adjusted EBIT with a 8.7% margin, down from $704 million in 2024.

Reported EBIT decreased to $607.6 million in 2025 (8% margin) from $667.5 million in 2024 (10.4% margin). Causal factors included the Boeing agreement in 2024, U.S. tariffs and non-recurring facilities infrastructure costs in 2025 (-$32 million).

However, as of 24 February, all of Embraer’s aircraft, engines and parts are now exempt from the 10% tariffs, providing relief for the planemaker. 

“The decision was very positive and will benefit not only Embraer but U.S. suppliers and customers as well,” Francisco Gomes Neto, Embraer’s CEO, said on the call.

Francisco Gomes Neto, Embraer’s CEO

“So far, we don’t expect any big changes. But you know this political situation is a little volatile… we are very optimistic that this will remain, and we will continue to enforce our position in the aerospace industry and in the U.S. as well.” 

Adjusted free cash flow, excluding Eve, reached $738.3 million in the fourth quarter and totaled $491.2 million for 2025 as a whole, helped by a higher number of aircraft deliveries. As a result, the company ended the year with a net cash position of $109.3 million, also excluding Eve.

For the year ahead, Embraer expects revenues of between $8.2 billion and $8.5 billion. The company is guiding for an adjusted EBIT margin in the range of 8.7% to 9.3%, however this was based on an assumption of U.S. import tariffs of 10%, and adjusted free cash flow excluding Eve of at least $200 million for the year.

This cash figure reflects a “conservative approach … because of decreased policy certainty,” and Carlos Garcia said Embraer was waiting for “additional visibility before making any changes” to the forecast.  

Deliveries increase

In the fourth quarter of 2025, Embraer delivered 91 aircraft. This included 32 commercial jets (18 E2s and 14 E1s), 53 executive jets (28 light and 25 medium), and six defense aircraft (two KC-390 Millennium and four A-29 Super Tucano).

For the full year, Embraer delivered 244 aircraft in total. Of these, 78 were commercial jets (44 E2s and 34 E1s), 155 were executive jets (86 light and 69 medium), and 11 were delivered through the Defense & Security segment (three KC-390 Millennium and eight A-29 Super Tucano). Overall, this represents an 18% increase compared with the 206 aircraft delivered in 2024.

Uncertainty is weighing on the aviation industry and 2026 may be somewhat difficult to predict, but Embraer is forecasting an uptick in production, with Commercial Aviation deliveries of around 80 to 85 aircraft and Executive Aviation deliveries of roughly 160 to 170 aircraft.

In a call with analysts, Gomes Neto said the previous 12 months had been a “stellar year” in terms of E2 sales, while the E2 outpaced the E1 for deliveries by 44 to 34 last year (although E2 deliveries were down three versus 2024).

“2025 clearly marked the consolidation of our strategy across all businesses,” he said. “In commercial aviation, record orders supported the consolidation of the E2 platform as they reinforced its global relevance and provided long term visibility for the business. 

“Looking ahead, we expect substantial growth over the midterm while we prepare the company for a more ambitious long term expansion, supported by a new generation of products and technologies.”

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