MILAN — As Ukraine weighs a U.S.-imposed peace deal deemed unfavorable to Kyiv, Russia could be ready to challenge NATO again soon after the weapons go silent, experts warned at a Baltic security conference last week.
“You might not choose to have a war with the Russians, but the Russians are certainly choosing to prepare to conduct a war against you,” George Barros, lead analyst on Russia and geospatial intelligence at the Institute for the Study of War, said during a panel at the Defending the Baltics 2025 conference. “We’re watching every day how they’re preparing their economy, operational concepts and their military thinking about the next war.”
Barros estimated NATO would have 12 months to prepare for fresh provocations after the end of fighting in Ukraine. “We have a lot less time than some would argue.”
A key point made by delegates throughout the conference, which took place in Lithuania’s capital, Vilnius, Nov. 17-18, was that future Russian aggression would unlikely resemble the 2022 assault on Ukraine. Rather, it is expected to be non-traditional or hybrid, with tactics including cyber-attacks, sabotage, disinformation campaigns and destabilizing campaigns in NATO countries.
At the same time, Western intelligence services have warned for years that Moscow is also trying to boost its traditional military capabilities, putting Russia in a position to threaten the alliance by the turn of the decade.
Last month, the Ukrainian open-source intelligence organization Frontelligence Insight published internal documents from Russian tank manufacturer Uralvagonzavod that reportedly included a goal of increasing T-90 battle tank production by 80 % by 2028.
A subsequent assessment by the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War argued the tank figures indicate an intention to rearm and pose a long-term threat to NATO after the war in Ukraine.
Sandis Šraders, director for defense technology at Riga Technical University who has studied autocratic regimes, told conference attendees in Vilnius any date expectations for a re-armed Russia miss a crucial point. “If you give them the deadline, they will do it before,” he said. “I would never wait for somebody to be ready and only then attack.”
Elisabeth Gosselin-Malo is a Europe correspondent for Defense News. She covers a wide range of topics related to military procurement and international security, and specializes in reporting on the aviation sector. She is based in Milan, Italy.
