The aviation industry is confronting its most challenging environment since the COVID-19 pandemic as the effects from the war in Iran creates several bleak scenarios for the sector.
On March 9, 2026, the price of oil soared above $100 a barrel for the first time since 2022, placing the cost of jet fuel in limbo and in turn the amount passengers pay for their ticket.
In the clearest indication that the aviation industry is struggling, shares of many airlines were down, including some of the world’s leading carriers.
Delta Air Lines, United Airlines and American Airlines have all seen around a 3% decline in share value while British Airways and Iberia owner IAG and Lufthansa Group have seen similar drops.
At different times during the day other airlines have seen similar falls, with some experiencing much worse.
As the US, Israel and Iran continue their conflict in the Middle East, several countries key to oil production have been forced to cut exports.
Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Iraq have all faced drone and/or missile strikes by Iran and under a turbulent environment reduced oil supply.
The Strait of Hormuz, a key transport route of the distribution of oil, has been effectively closed since the first attacks were launched on Iran on February 28, 2026.
Deutsche Bank has warned that airlines from around the world could ground 1,000s of aircraft, while more financially vulnerable carriers could stop operations.
On March 7, 2026, Israel struck 30 Iranian oil depots, with Axios reporting that the attack went further than the US had anticipated.
“The president doesn’t like the attack. He wants to save the oil. He doesn’t want to burn it. And it reminds people of higher gas prices,” an adviser to President Donald Trump told Axios.
Additionally, President Trump has recently described the increase in oil price as “very small price to pay” for “peace and safety”.
In a sign of some hope for the future, the price for future deliveries of oil is much lower than the $100 dollars now.
According to The Guardian, a barrel of crude oil delivered in November 2026 is priced at $80.