Airline industry and travel trends evolve over time. Coming out of the pandemic, there are few words airline executives have used more than “premium” and “Europe” when it comes to describing where demand is strongest. In recent years, summer travel to Europe has been all the rage, and the growth opportunities almost seem endless. However, is that really the case, or how will this aspect of the industry evolve over the coming years?
Americans are traveling to Europe at an unprecedented rate
I don’t want to suggest that Europe was some uncharted continent for Americans before the pandemic (of course it wasn’t). However, there’s no denying that the number of Americans traveling to Europe, plus the frequency with which they travel to Europe, has increased considerably over the years.
People who may have traveled internationally very little before the pandemic are largely now making an annual trip to Europe. And even beyond that, you have the trend of people taking multiple summer trips to Europe. Americans are going to Europe in summer like New Yorkers go to the Hamptons (if they even go there anymore… or do they just meet in Saint-Tropez now?).
What’s driving this growth in demand for travel to Europe? The way I view it, there are a few primary factors:
- Coming out of the pandemic, a lot of people had more flexibility with where they could work from, and also started valuing travel and experiences more than before, realizing how easily that “freedom” can be taken away
- Social media sort of gives people the ultimate FOMO, and people feel like they need to be seen in Europe to even keep up anymore
- Generationally, a lot of younger people are struggling to save meaningfully, given how expensive life has become, so enjoying nice and memorable experiences has become one way for people to “treat themselves”
Look, I understand the interest in Europe, as it’s an incredible continent with a lot to offer, from endless history, to amazing food, to gorgeous landscape. But there’s no denying that the current reality of traveling to Europe in July isn’t quite the dream it’s made out to me. So much of Europe has become outrageously expensive over peak months, and is uncomfortably crowded. Furthermore, many of the most popular places are also super hot (temperature wise). And that says nothing of the number of places that are trying to increasingly restrict tourism (through anti-tourism protests, entry fees, etc.).
But I think this is also where social media comes into play. You see these beautiful pictures and videos of Santorini, which are conveniently framed to leave out the 10,000 people walking through Oia at any given point. People see that online and then want to go, not realizing what the experience is really like. And those posting the content of course have an incentive to make it look as dreamy as possible.
Let me of course acknowledge that I’m painting with a very broad brush here. But that’s ultimately because Americans are really concentrated with where in Europe they go — we’re talking places like France, Greece, Italy, and Spain. There are of course lots of better value and less crowded places to go in Europe (ranging from Albania to Germany), but that doesn’t mean that tourists are flocking there… yet.
How will European travel trends evolve?
The above brings me to my question — is the amount of demand among Americans for traveling to Europe here to stay forever, or will we slowly start to see a decline over time, at least in the peak of summer? For the past several years, it has seemed like airlines can do absolutely no wrong when it comes to adding flights to Europe.
However, recently we learned that Delta’s worst performing region in the third quarter (overlapping with the traditional summer) was Europe, with July and August not being the peak months they once were. This comes down to a variety of factors, with the primary one being that the European travel season for Americans has become much longer — those with kids in school are increasingly traveling in June, while those without kids are increasingly traveling in the spring and fall (April through May, and September through October).
I could be wrong, but I do think we’re eventually going to a slowing in the growth to the current regions in Europe that are so popular with Americans. To be clear, I’m not suggesting they’ll suddenly not be popular anymore, but between crowding, heat, and affordability issues, I think something has to eventually give.
What could that look like?
- I think over the next decade, the single biggest European travel trend we’ll see among Americans is Europe travel shifting further north, where the weather is much better in summer; however, the luxury tourism infrastructure could use a bit of help there
- Domestic travel in the United States has been weak in summer in recent years, and I do think we’ll see that make more of a comeback, including to Hawaii (which was super hot right after the pandemic, but has cooled a bit)
- I think the challenge is that there are limited regions outside of Europe (with the exception of places like Japan) where the average American is super comfortable traveling; I don’t think we’re going to see widespread China tourism anytime soon, and I think much of South America (largely wrongly) has the reputation of being too dangerous
- It’s interesting to me how Eastern Europe hasn’t proven as popular as some airlines were hoping for; you’d think there would be a lot more demand for places like Budapest and Prague, but it hasn’t really turned out that way
Bottom line
Americans have always enjoyed traveling to Europe in summer, but this trend has been taken to the next level in recent years, post-pandemic. It does seem like this demand may finally start to plateau, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see it shift a bit.
Personally, I don’t see the whole trend of everyone always traveling to southern Europe being permanent, and I think we’ll start to see some summer shifts. Some people may travel further north, some further east, and some may vacation closer to home.
Regardless, the current Europe demand patterns are certainly a major part of the airline route planning puzzle, so it’s something to watch.
How do you see American travel to Europe evolving in the coming years?