It has been an absolutely wild few days in the Middle East, as the United States and Israel launched an attack on Iran, which took out some top Iranian officials. In response, Iran launched drone attacks on nearby countries, including targeting airports, hotels, and more.
To see fires at multiple hotels in Dubai, plus major damage at Dubai Airport, makes for some shocking imagery. Along those lines, that brings me to what I’d consider to be an interesting question to keep an eye out for as time goes on…
Could this be a turning point for some Gulf carriers?
Let me start by acknowledging that of course there are massive geopolitical implications to what we’ve seen in the past few days, and that goes way beyond the airline industry. However, this blog is about travel, so that’s what I’d like to focus on, while acknowledging that there are many ways this can all evolve.
Airlines like Emirates, Etihad, Qatar, etc., have all become extremely “mainstream” over the years, with so many travelers choosing to fly with the airlines when moving between other regions. So whether it’s Australians looking to travel to the UK, or Europeans looking to vacation in Southeast Asia, airlines like Emirates have become huge competitors in those markets, going head-to-head against “local” carriers.
Destinations like Dubai, and airlines like Emirates, have enjoyed such a high level of success thanks to the incredible safety within the country for visitors (both real and perceived). While the Middle East is a region that has seen its fair share of conflict over time, places like the UAE thrive on staying out of the drama, despite their geographic proximity.
So to see Dubai Airport sustain damage, and to see a fire at a hotel like the Burj Al Arab that’s due to an attack by an Iranian drone, certainly isn’t great for tourism in the country. Now, let me say that personally I’d still feel comfortable traveling to Dubai, etc. Even as we see some pretty rough images, the actual number of fatalities seems to be very limited, and that’s where I try to be rational.
The UAE offers incredible safety in so many areas for visitors, and here in the United States we have our own dangers that we try to overlook (like gun violence). So as I see it (at least as of now), places like the UAE may have more of an issue with optics than anything else.
Will these attacks change consumer behavior going forward?
In the short term, we’ve seen the major Gulf carriers all pause operations for an extended period of time, which is pretty unprecedented, at least since the start of the pandemic. Currently the plan is for Emirates flights to and from Dubai to stay grounded until at least Tuesday afternoon, so we’re talking a three day suspension of service (minimum).
But once operations do resume, I can’t help but wonder whether it’ll once again just be business as usual, or will the Gulf carriers return to a slightly new normal? Like I said, historically people have gone out of their way to fly with Gulf carriers thanks to the great service and competitive pricing.
And while I think all Gulf hubs are still incredibly safe, I can’t help but think that this situation will change optics of places like Dubai for some amount of time. I’m by no means suggesting that a majority of Emirates’ potential customers will just book away on principle.
However, I wouldn’t be surprised if a not-insignificant number of travelers might say “you know, I’ll just fly nonstop on a European or Southeast Asian carrier, rather than connecting through the Middle East.” For that matter, a traveler can also arrive at that conclusion on an entirely rational basis, without directly considering safety — if they book a Gulf carrier, they might be concerned about how reliably they can get to their destination, and if we might see more airspace closures.
Then again, I also believe nothing is actually permanent. For example, look at all of the doom and gloom predictions we saw after the start of the coronavirus pandemic, yet the airline industry bounced back quite nicely.
So we’ll see how it all plays out. I would guess that we might see a short term dip in demand for Gulf carriers for travelers to and from some regions, while I’m sure in the long run, things will normalize.
Bottom line
It has been quite the several days in the Middle East, as Iran was attacked, and then responded by sending drones basically anywhere it could. While many Gulf carriers are still grounded, I can’t help but wonder about the longer term recovery.
Places like Dubai have thrived on the image of being incredibly safe. And while I think nothing has really changed, these attacks — and images of the airport and hotels being damaged — aren’t at all good. I have to imagine this could be a rough period for Gulf carriers, especially as some people may avoid future bookings just out of an abundance of caution over potential operational issues.
How do you see the Gulf carrier recovery playing out with all of this?