Business jet production is on track to continue climbing through the rest of the decade before a modeled downturn in 2030 interrupts the upcycle, according to a new 10-year forecast from US market analyst Forecast International.
The firm projects roughly 7,900 business jet deliveries from 2026 through 2035, with annual output rising from 752 aircraft in 2026 to 830 in 2029, falling to 604 in 2030, then recovering to 863 by 2035.
That 2030 dip is the most striking takeaway in the report, especially because it comes at a time when business aviation demand remains healthy. Forecast International says the industry is entering the second half of the decade with strong underlying demand, a steady flow of transactions, and continued interest from high-net-worth individuals and corporate operators. At the same time, supply chain constraints, labor shortages, and long component lead times continue to limit how quickly manufacturers can raise output.
The report makes clear that the projected downturn does not stem from a specific event expected in 2030. Instead, Forecast International applies what it describes as a simplified 10-year cycle based on the historical relationship between macroeconomic swings and historic business jet production levels. In this case, that model produces a contraction around 2030, roughly 10 years after the pandemic recession.
Unlike the commercial airliner market, which often keeps producing through downturns because of large backlogs and long planning horizons, business jet demand tends to react much more quickly to changes in corporate profits, private wealth, and capital spending. Forecast International points to the global financial crisis as a prime example. While narrowbody and widebody airliner deliveries rose in 2008 and 2009, business jet deliveries moved sharply in the opposite direction as corporations and individuals canceled orders.
The report breaks out that sensitivity by segment. Light jets posted average historical declines of 37.6% across the dot-com recession, the financial crisis, and the pandemic downturn, while midsize jets declined an average of 42.7%. Heavy jets proved much more resilient, with average declines of 14.8%. Forecast International uses those past patterns to model a future downturn impact of 35% for light jets, 45% for midsize jets, and 10% for heavy jets.
Forecast International expects large-cabin and long-range jets to account for 36.7% of all business jet deliveries from 2026 through 2035, making these aircraft the largest segment, ahead of entry-level and light jets at 33.2% and medium and super-midsize jets at 30.1%. The firm says large-cabin jets benefit from a broader international customer base, stronger margins, and lower sensitivity to US economic cycles.
Among manufacturers, Forecast International expects Gulfstream to lead the market over the forecast period with a 22.5% share of deliveries, narrowly ahead of Cessna at 22%. Bombardier follows at 18.2%, with Embraer at 17.2%.