Aviation data analytics platform, Cirium, earlier this week released its forecast for the coming decades and predicts over 46 thousand new aircraft to be delivered to airlines around the world by the year 2044, with the data indicating a 1% increase in deliveries in the long-term forecast.
With over $3 trillion spent by global airlines in fleet renewal and expansions, the largest aircraft manufacturers, Airbus and Boeing, also see similar numbers in their aircraft forecasts for the next two decades.
Over 46 Thousand New Aircraft In 20 Years
Based on industry trends, Aviation data analytics platform Cirium, last week, published its forecast of global aircraft trends for the next 20 years. The data shows that in the coming decades, around 46,500 new aircraft will be manufactured and delivered to airlines around the world, with the majority of aircraft being manufactured by giants such as Airbus and 
Data released indicates that the overall value of these new aircraft can be equated to a value of $3.4 trillion, with Airbus and Boeing forecasted to jointly account for 85% of the aircraft deliveries and 92% of the overall value. The remaining 15% of the aircraft would be manufactured by OEMs such as Embraer, Comac, and more.
Apart from the market forecast, the data also showed other findings, such as markets in Asia, like China and India, are experiencing the largest fleet growth currently, with the continent solely accounting for 45% of all aircraft deliveries. Additionally, the data also showed that narrowbody aircraft now account for 71% of the global fleet while widebody aircraft and regional jets are still below pre-pandemic levels.
It is also said that in the years to come, manufacturers will also continue to increase focus on next-generation sustainable aircraft, regarding research and development, to help commercial aviation achieve its net-zero goals.
Forecasts From Airbus And Boeing
Based on data published by the two largest aircraft manufacturers, Airbus and Boeing, it is noticeable that the two OEMs also see similar numbers in their forecasts. Airbus recently released its Global Service Forecast, which sees the global fleet doubling by 2044, with the OEM predicting around 49,000 new aircraft to be produced by then.
Airbus forecasts that the demand for services will increase year-on-year by 10%, paired with the growing passenger numbers and airlines wanting to renew/expand their fleet with the latest generation, sustainable, and efficient aircraft, which will account for all these new aircraft. Boeing also forecasts the need for around 49,640 new aircraft for airlines around the world, with its data indicating the following composition of the global fleet structure by 2044:
|
Aircraft Type |
Narrowbody Aircraft |
Widebody Aircraft |
Regional & Freight Aircraft |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Fleet Composition (approximate) |
70% |
17% |
13% |
Furthermore, Boeing also forecasts that by 2044, North America, Eurasia, and China will have the largest fleets, but regions such as South and Southeast Asia, Africa, and China will see the largest hike in passenger growth.
Delivery Delays And Supply Chain Issues
A key issue that persists today and can affect aircraft delivery forecasts in the coming decades is that of aircraft delivery delays, which are primarily affected by supply chain issues around the world. To cater to the continuously growing market demand, it is essential that airlines have access to a supply of new and efficient aircraft, for which supply chain reliability is key.
This is a point which both Cirium and Airbus cited in their respective forecasts. Data from Cirium additionally indicated that there will be a reduction in aircraft delivery by 6% in the next seven years compared to previous forecast data, because the production of narrowbody aircraft has failed to ramp up at the expected pace. Despite this, the data still shows a 1% increase in overall deliveries in the long run.
While the supply chain issues persisting today can be attributed to the effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic, other factors include a shortage of skills, geopolitical unrest in regions of the world, and certification delays. Global Head of Cirium Ascend Consultancy, Stephen Burnisde, stated:
“The next chapter of aviation growth is being defined by the need for supply chain resilience, production capacity right sizing, product and service innovation, and a focus on efficiency.”
Ultimately, in the coming years, it will be worth watching how the industry evolves and observe how OEMs will be able to keep up deliveries or how they will react to any future uncertainties.