Europe’s biggest airline group is set to challenge the European Union’s synthetic aviation fuel (SAF) rules, arguing that the timetable for adoption no longer matches market reality as the Iran war drives up conventional jet fuel costs and puts added pressure on airline economics.
Airlines for Europe, whose members include Lufthansa, Air France-KLM, Ryanair, easyJet, and British Airways owner IAG, is preparing to call for at least a delay to the EU’s planned SAF mandate, and is also discussing whether to seek its removal altogether.
The EU’s SAF rule currently requires 2% SAF use at EU airports in 2025 and is due to rise to 6% in 2030. Within that 2030 target, 1.2% must come from synthetic fuel, or eSAF, which is made using renewable electricity rather than biological feedstocks such as used cooking oil or waste oils. Reuters on March 17, 2026, reported that airlines argue there is not nearly enough eSAF production capacity available to meet the target on time, raising the prospect of sharply higher costs being passed on to passengers.
Jet fuel prices, which were around $85 to $90 a barrel before the Iran conflict, surged to roughly $150 to $200 in the wake of the war, forcing airlines in Asia and Europe to raise fares, impose surcharges, or rethink capacity and earnings guidance.
Unlike conventional SAF based on biological materials, eSAF is meant to offer a lower-carbon fuel that does not depend on limited waste-based feedstocks. But airlines fear the current mandate risks outpacing supply by a wide margin, with executives concerned that they could be forced to pay steep compliance costs for fuel volumes that may not exist in meaningful commercial quantities by 2030.
Airlines for Europe is expected to formalize its position later this week. According to Reuters, the group argues that expected eSAF production would cover only about 0.7% of demand by 2030, well below the EU requirement, and warns that the shortfall could trigger billions of euros in penalties that would ultimately be passed through the supply chain and onto travelers.
The planned industry statement is expected to spell out the airlines’ position that Europe’s green aviation targets are moving faster than fuel supply projections can realistically support.